Rynizzle
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| 26 Aug 2008 08:07 PM |
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It never ceases to amaze me just how bad customer support and product quality are from the biggest of companies. But this one I thought was pretty good. I have two Xbox Live accounts for some rentals and I needed to update some account info on them. So I called the Microsoft Xbox Live number and was greeted by MAX who uses "hip" speech recognition and language while navigating through the menu. Pretty cool...kinda like most big companies and it didn't misunderstand me. So it connects me to a person...
The person is of course not American and I can barely understand what they are saying and after giving him all the basic info he then tells me....not kidding here...."my computer is not working, please call back in 2 hours."
This isn't a unique case of course. Reminds me of the picture of the "Homeland Security" screen above the baggage check in some airport with a nice "Memory Overflow Error" window popped up in the center of the splash screen. Incredible.
Young pups, don't buy that new car. Put the money away. The retardation of our society combined with shitty companies combined with idiots that live off of credit to buy shit they don't need and can't afford and willingness of major companies to cook the books and invest in shit schemes... Oh how 1920s. It's only a matter of time. It can't continue and it's gonna hurt for a lot of people. Don't be one of them. This is no time for credit. |
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Rynizzle
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| 20 Sep 2008 09:22 PM |
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Sometimes I hate being right as much as I am... Anybody watching the news over the last two days? I just heard a Senator on the news talking about how we could be headed for a Depression and of course several others saying it's the worst financial crisis yada yada....
I had over 100Gs in the stock market which I sold about two years ago because I was that sure this was going to happen. I put it all into real estate because even though that value will go down it will actually be the same value and in ten or twenty years it will still be worth something and will probably appreciate. But companies run by crooked CEOs with ties to crooked politicians and not held accountable by the same idiots that watch the Springer Show make it obvious what is going to happen.
Shit is going to get bad before it gets better but it will get better for those that didn't have their heads up their asses. |
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Rynizzle
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| 29 Sep 2008 05:10 PM |
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Thankfully Congress got it right today and voted down the Socialist Bailout...and the market is plumetting and another domino has fallen (Wachovia gets taken over). The credit freeze is going to have even more effects on business. The chickens are coming home to roost.
So the next Great Depression not interesting enough for anybody else to post here, huh? Maybe your computers are getting repo'd... |
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Rynizzle
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| 29 Sep 2008 07:09 PM |
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Thank God Congress did something right. For all their shortcomings at least most of them (barely) did the right thing in this case. If they could have done the same when the Iraq vote went around our lives would be so much better... |
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Shep
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| 29 Sep 2008 09:25 PM |
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I don't think our computers are getting repo'd, I just think we're all a little more hesitant to slap labels on our current situation than you are. It's easy to throw out pessimistic terms and label our current situation as "the next Great Depression" and compare a poor government rescue attempt to "socialism," but the truth is, when it comes to free market capitalism and the stock market, no one knows shit. It's all a bunch of so called experts saying what they THINK will happen. But guess what, half of these experts think one thing, the other half think something else. So who's right?
The reason this thread hasn't been getting much action isn't because nobody cares... it's because nobody knows. Buying into the negative, pessimistic extreme may seem attractive at the current time, but it's pointless. None of us know where our market is going or what this current economic crisis is going to mean in the long or short term. We also don't know how effective any government rescue plan will be. It all depends on how many people are willing to risk their money... that's the beauty of capitalism... it's completely dependent upon human MOODS therefore it's completely unpredictable. We can speculate all we want but in the end, all we can really do is sit back and watch (unless you want to run for Congress, Ryno... haha). |
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Rynizzle
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| 29 Sep 2008 09:40 PM |
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Ah...got a bite.
it's easy to throw out pessimistic terms? Why is that easy? What's the more difficult but (I assume) better option? Again, why is it "easy" to call a massive bailout socialism? I'm not sure why you you respond to my comments with an idea of ease...I'm not sure what easy or difficult has to do with it. If you mean it's easy because "everybody on TV and in the government is saying it" then I would disagree. I called it well before the stuff hit the fan and that was not the party line. What applies, it appears to me, is not what is "easy" to say but what is true to say.
But you say when it comes to free market capitalism and the stock market "no one knows shit." Interesting. You would have to know quite a bit of shit, ironically, to make that statement with any authority. If you don't know shit then you can't say what others know. I think it's safe to say you're wrong here. Warrent Buffet is a good example. I'd also submit I'm a good example. I know others that know shit about the stock market which prompted them to sell high before it tanked. You appear to think because there isn't any unanimity among the so called experts then that none of them know anything. There are those that know and those that don't. There are also those that know but lie. The market has a speculative side so most financial "experts" are like political "experts" with a hidden agenda they broadcast on the nightly news. Warren Buffet doesn't require the so called experts to agree before he concludes it's possible to know something about the market.
Just like everything else, some people do know and many people do not know. I didn't buy into the negative extreme....please check the date of my first post. It was well before this "crisis" broke. Your statement that capitalism is "completely dependent on human MOODS" is inaccurate (although it does serve to undercut your position that nobody knows shit about the market since you appear to know something about it). If it were that easy we'd all have a really good mood just to make the market go up. There are plenty of other things that affect the market including moods...supply, demand, etc.
Thanks for responding! Aren't you glad you did?! As far as Conress goes...ha ha. That IS completely predictable...I would never want to do it, and nobody would vote for me. I lack tolerance for retards which makes me unelectable in this country. |
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Shep
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| 30 Sep 2008 01:54 PM |
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Wow. Okay, let me start with a couple of things that I should clarify. First, I don't think that our economy by any means is in a good spot right now, and I'm definately not suggesting any "ease" in our current situation. Second, let me respond to a couple of your points. Are you suggesting that among all of the economic experts that have wide and varying points of view, that there is some ultimate truth out there about our economy? That one group out of all of these speculators has it right? We've got economic experts on one hand (the Department of Treasury, for example) proposing this massive bailout as a solution to our current economic crisis. Then you've got economic experts from some of the most prestigious schools in the country writing letters to their congress people saying that this bailout plan spells sure disaster for our country, and even worse yet, that it will be completely ineffective and a complete waste of money. So who's right?
Right now as I can see it, 1 of 4 things is going to happen:
1) We pass the bailout, it fails and we're in a massive recession with unprecedented debt
2) We pass the bailout, it works and the economy recovers
3) We don't pass the bailout, and the economy recovers on its own
4) We don't pass the bailout, and our economy slips into a recession
All of the experts in our country are fighting right now as to which of these things is going to happen... but NO ONE KNOWS! That's my point. And yes, our economy is dependent upon moods, despite your misinterpretation of what I was saying. If people get spooked by what they see, they stop investing and pull their money out. Thus, stock market slows. If people see something they like, they invest and put their money in... stock market soars. This is how it's dependent upon their moods. Are they scared? Are they excited? Are they calm? Our economy is a lot like the classic Prisoner's Dilema model (I'm not sure if you're familiar with this, but it's something we talk about a lot in Political Science). By this I mean that the economy is a collective action problem and one that's at the mercy of the mood of the people putting their money in the system or pulling it out. Don't get me wrong though, I know that moods aren't ALL that comes into play in our economy (like you said, supply, demand, etc.), but it IS a factor.
Last, let me defend my initial criticism of your evaluation of our current situation. My point was that we are not CURRENTLY in a situation that's as bad as the Great Depression. In fact, I've been following this situation on multiple news sources for the last several weeks and most are hesitant to even call this a recession. Many say we're headed there, but no one knows if we're going to get there or not. This could all turn around tomorrow, for all we know. And calling our current situation "the next Great Depression" is an untrue and very pessimistic remark that is just going to freak people out. My point is that we just don't know anything yet... this thing is still playing itself out. |
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Rynizzle
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| 30 Sep 2008 02:13 PM |
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Cool bro...I think we agree on most things. Just some semantic differences no doubt a result from your blogging under the influence.....
Do I think of all the experts out there that some are right and know what's going on? Yes. But their existence or non-existence doesn't matter to me....I can look at the data myself and study history and compare and contrast and make predictions on my own. You seem to have this "nobody knows anything" about the market worldview which is puzzling. Yes, many people do not know about the market but some people know a great deal. Those are the people on top as opposed to the people on the bottom. Makes me wonder if you haven't swallowed some "there is no objective reality it's only perception" line that some Poli Sci professor gave you....?
I think we agree that mood is a part of the market but it's not the only thing.
We can also agree that we're not CURRENTLY in a depression but while you maintain that nobody can know I say I CAN know. Now in the future you may say, "You got lucky...you didn't actually know" but I'll be saying, "Nice chatting with you but I'm headed to my weekend home in Bermuda." You seem to think we're at the mercy of the world and can't know anything about it while I think we can know. I don't wait until stuff happens...I use data now to make predictions and I connect the dots. I say we will see a full blown depression within the next ten years and very possibly much sooner. If you want to make a wager I'll bet some AIG stock against the computer you're using right now.... |
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Shep
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| 30 Sep 2008 03:48 PM |
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Haha, I KNOW we don't want to get into the "perception is reality" talk on here. We can save that one for that sweet ass condo on the riverwalk over a glass of scotch some night. I still think we're misunderstanding each other a little here, though. I definately never wanted to insinuate that there's nothing that WE as individuals can do to protect ourselves. I'm a firm believer that being an informed citizen and consumer can put you in a position to create your own luck. Of course, some people have much greater access to information and resources to protect themselves, but that's a whole other conversation.
Also, I want to try and clarify my point once more to see if I can communicate it correctly this time. When I said, "No one knows shit," I didn't mean to suggest that there are no people out there that understand the market. What I meant was they all think they can predict the future (yes, you too, Ryno), but the fact is that free market economy is NOT an exact science, and it is NOT 100% predictable. So when I say no one knows shit, what I mean is that no one can predict the future of this economy. Yes, you can study the shit out of it and make an educated guess playing the higher odds, but there's still no certainty about any of it because our market is at the mercy of numerous uncontrolable variables (no, this isn't an argument in support Communism or Socialism, either). And studying history is definately something we should all do a lot more of, but don't forget that the market now is astronomically different than it was when the stock market crashed in the early 20th century. We know a lot more now than we did then, and information travels lightyears faster than it did then. Maybe we'll be able to fix this before it's a depression. Maybe you'll get it right though, Ryno, and I'll come visit you in Bermuda to hand over my laptop. |
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08Jayhawk
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| 30 Sep 2008 05:14 PM |
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I think the next time I invest my hard earned casual Lt money it will be at a craps table in Vegas. |
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Jenkspaz
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| 01 Oct 2008 09:43 AM |
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One could argue, though, that it's a perfect time to buy, 08Jay. That's what everyone else did yesterday. Losing over 700 points in a day tends to make things pretty cheap. Of course it may continue to go down, though. Yesterday's spike will probably not last. In fact, as I type, the market's already down 170 points. Makes things a lot more interesting. I'm keeping my money in, though. First rule of retirement investing: once it's in, leave it alone (STS). |
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"I've had enough of this shit, man, I'm goin' to the merge!"
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Rynizzle
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| 02 Oct 2008 06:31 AM |
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Yeah it's certainly a better time to buy with it down. The question is how far will it go down? What is the true value? That's what will determine, it seems to me, how big the "correction" to the market will be. We inflate, speculate, lobby, and shift data to make "profit" and keep stock prices going up regardless of what they are actually worth. It seems to me the market is inflated and must fall more. Case in point... The housing market in Del Rio...there are plenty of houses there for 200Gs plus and even 300+ and more. I know several people that paid for houses in these ranges in Del Rio, TX. You can buy two or three times the house for the same price in San Antonio. Are houses in Del Rio actually a better investment than the ones in San Antonio? If you've ever been to Del Rio you will quickly know the answer to that question. But because military sell to themselves and hear about house prices rising yada yada they charge more. The next guy buys it "knowing" he can sell it for the same price or more to the next guy. Up and up. But the fact is anybody paying for a house in Del Rio for more than 100Gs should have their head examined. The houses simply aren't worth it. Picture a nice house sitting in the middle of Somalia. It may have a pool but it's not worth it. So also with the stock market.
In other news, I just checked to see how my politicians voted for the new bailout that just passed:
Florida
Martinez (R) Yes; Nelson (D) No.
Good thing those fiscally conservative Republicans are keeping government small and responsible as usual while the Democrats continue to ruin the country with all their social programs. The Republican party no longer exists. True Republicans have become Independents or Libertarians. |
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Rynizzle
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Rynizzle
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Shep
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Jenkspaz
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Rynizzle
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| 03 Oct 2008 04:07 PM |
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Wait a minute you've got it all wrong. You will be in lines waiting for toilet paper and I will be with my comrades in Congress. Yes I did want to go to Bermuda but after the bailout plan was passed today I was taken to a re-education camp hosted by the Republican and Democratic parties and I now understand. I was informed by the state that I must produce for the good of mother USA. We each have skills to give, comrades, for the state and together we can make enough bread for everybody. When the weak among us fall we must lift them up. Nobody is better than anybody else. |
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Jenkspaz
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| 05 Oct 2008 03:12 AM |
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That's why I went out and bought hardcopy editions of The Communist Manifesto and Animal Farm. |
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"I've had enough of this shit, man, I'm goin' to the merge!"
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Rynizzle
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| 06 Oct 2008 09:43 PM |
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You'll need em....as tinder in the barrel to keep warm..... Good thing our new socialist government rescued us. Crazy how the stock market dumped even more after the bailout. Also odd how most in America according to recent polling think we're headed for a Depression and also interesting how the word Depression is being used more than Recession throughout the media.
I just can't believe how our government gave a complete Fuck Off to the American people like they did. In broad daylight. Fucking thieves. |
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Jenkspaz
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| 07 Oct 2008 01:52 PM |
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The drop in the market after our bailout had a lot to do with the reaction from the rest of the world. We're not the only ones in this mess, but we are in it the worst. It also came from investors who are reluctant to believe that the bailout will do any good. Of course the market didn't jump up right away: it will take a little time. |
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"I've had enough of this shit, man, I'm goin' to the merge!"
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