This article is quite ominous.  It's hard to think how we're going to respond if international pressure and diplomacy don't work here, ecspecially considering out situation in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Washington Post
May 27, 2009
Pg. 8

 

 

By Blaine Harden, Washington Post Foreign Service

TOKYO, May 27 -- North Korea announced Wednesday that it is no longer bound by the 1953 armistice that halted the Korean War, the latest and most profound diplomatic aftershock from the country's latest nuclear test two days earlier.

North Korea also warned that it would respond "with a powerful military strike" should its ships be stopped by international forces trying to stop the export of missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

The twin declarations, delivered by the country's state news agency, followed South Korea's announcement Tuesday that it would join the navies that will stop and inspect suspicious ships at sea. North Korea has repeatedly said that such participation would be a "declaration of war."

They followed other developments in North Korea that have added to the sense of jangled nerves across northeast Asia since Monday's underground nuclear test.

The North fired three more short-range missiles off its east coast on Tuesday, said Yonhap, the South Korean news agency. North Korea had fired two missiles into the same waters on Monday.

And U.S. spy satellites have detected signs that North Korea has restarted its nuclear plant, a South Korean newspaper reported Wednesday. Chosun Ilbo cited an unnamed South Korean government source as saying that steam has been detected from a reprocessing facility at North Korea's Yongbyon plant.

In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke Tuesday to her Russian counterpart as part of an effort to seek a united response with "consequences" for North Korea. But U.S. officials also stressed that they are still eager for North Korea to return to multilateral disarmament talks and are not ready to declare the multi-year effort to end North Korea's nuclear program a failure.

"We feel the door does still remain open, that we're ready to engage," said State Department spokesman Ian Kelly. He described the Obama administration's effort now as trying to "bring international pressure to bear to get them to reverse their course."

In Tokyo, a former defense minister and ruling party lawmaker said Japan should consider developing the ability to conduct preemptive strikes against North Korea, even though Japan's constitution prohibits it from taking offensive military action.

South Korea had long resisted U.S. pressure to join the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which was created in 2003 by President George W. Bush and includes more than 90 countries that have agreed to stop and inspect suspicious cargo on sea and land.

Seoul was reluctant to rile North Korea, but North Korea's second nuclear test nudged Seoul Korea to change its policy.

North Korea has long been suspected of shipping or flying missiles to customers in the Middle East and South Asia.

As a member of the security initiative, South Korea is likely to receive intelligence information from the United States, Japan and other countries about ships leaving North Korean ports that may be carrying such goods, a government official said in Tokyo.

Joining the international interdiction effort "is a natural obligation for a mature country," said South Korea's foreign minister, Yu Myung-hwan. Even before Monday's nuclear test, peaceful coexistence on the Korean Peninsula had been sorely tested this spring. The North launched a long-range missile, detained a South Korean citizen, kicked out U.N. nuclear inspectors, restarted a plutonium factory and halted the six-nation negotiations on its nuclear program.

"Inter-Korean relations have hit rock bottom," said Yun Duk-min, professor of international politics at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, a government think tank in Seoul. "So it is the right thing to join PSI, even if North Korea reacts with resistance."

"The current U.S. leadership . . . has drawn the puppets [South Korea] into the PSI," North Korea's military complained Wednesday in a statement.

North Korea is thought to possess more than 200 mid-range Nodong missiles that can strike nearly any part of Japan. The Japanese government, which has invested billions of dollars in a U.S.-made antimissile defense system, is concerned that the North is making progress in designing nuclear warheads that could fit atop its missiles.

"We must look at active missile defense such as attacking an enemy's territory and bases," the former defense minister, Gen Nakatani, said at a meeting of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

In China, where condemnation of the North's nuclear test was surprisingly swift and unambiguous, the state media on Tuesday printed strong reprimands of North Korea from other countries. The shower of criticism was far different from the reaction to North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, when the Chinese media blamed the United States for provoking Pyongyang by cutting off aid.

"This may well be a reflection of Beijing's frustrations for not being able to assert control and influence over North Korea," said Wenran Jiang, research chair of the China Institute at the University of Alberta.

Staff writers Glenn Kessler in Washington, Colum Lynch at the United Nations and Ariana Eunjung Cha in Beijing and special correspondents Stella Kim in Seoul and Akiko Yamamoto in Tokyo contributed to this report.

North Korea Issues Heated Warning To South

In a New York Times article from Tuesday: "The calculation about how hard to press the North is made more complex by doubts about who is making decisions in Pyongyang. Kim Jong-il, whom North Koreans call the Dear Leader, appeared to have suffered a debilitating stroke last year. Mr. Kim reappeared recently, looking gaunt, thin and greatly aged, but intelligence officials say they believe he is again making day-to-day decisions. Nonetheless, they say, a succession struggle has begun."

I had an interesting thought..  What if Krazy Kim is thinking about starting some fights because he knows he's got limited time left and he wants to make his mark?  With threats coming out of NK today against SK for joining the PSI, do you think they'd follow through and treat SK's action as an act of war?  They're the closest country to them (that they have beef with) and well within reach of NK's missiles...  What do you think?

It's interesting to see China's quick change of tune in frowning at North Korea considering they backed North Korea's nuclear exploration only three short years ago. I wonder whose side they're really on.

Actually, China has kind of been frowning upon NK lately. Yea they helped front their nuclear capabilities, but China also provided NK billions of dollars in what was supposed to be for economic stimulus. NK ran through that money with nothing to show for it, leaving China to get frustrated with NK wondering what they've been doing, and why they can't get their shit together.

China has significant fears about a rogue North Korea, too. I agree that if the Chonger really starts to cause legitimate problems, China will intervene.

China is very concerned about what is going on with their southern neighbors. NK is an unruly child that has the potential to cause significant problems in the region, and South Korea continues to have an immensely strong economy which yields them significant power politically and economically.

New York Times
May 28, 2009

North Korea Threatens Military Strikes On South

By Choe Sang-Hun

SEOUL, South Korea — The South Korean and American militaries on Thursday raised their level of alert on North Korea, a day after the Communist North threatened a military clash.

The militaries, which include 25,000 United States troops based in South Korea, raised the alert from Level 3 to Level 2, the Defense Ministry of South Korea said. The shift involves a significant increase in reconnaissance flights and spy satellite activities, as well as more vigorous gathering and analysis of electronic data from the North for signs of possible provocations, ministry officials said.

Level 2 is the second highest level of vigilance and it is invoked when military officials fear “a grave threat” from the North, the defense officials said.

On Wednesday North Korea escalated its vitriol against South Korea and the United States, warning of a “powerful military strike” if any North Korean ships were stopped or searched as part of an American-led operation to intercept vessels suspected of carrying unconventional weapons.

South Korea agreed to join the operation after North Korea tested a nuclear device on Monday, its second nuclear test in three years. The North had earlier warned the South not to participate in the operation, known as the Proliferation Security Initiative.

“We consider this a declaration of war against us,” North Korea said in a statement carried by its official news agency, KCNA. “Any hostile act against our peaceful vessels, including search and seizure, will be considered an unpardonable infringement on our sovereignty, and we will immediately respond with a powerful military strike.”

The North Koreans also said in the statement that they “no longer feel bound by the armistice” that ended the fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War. Technically, the two Koreas have remained at war for more than 50 years, because the 1953 armistice was never replaced with a final peace treaty. The North Koreans had previously called the armistice a “useless piece of paper” and declared that they no longer felt bound by it. But they have rarely used the threat of abandoning the armistice.

At the United Nations, the United States and Japan were drawing up a rough draft of a Security Council resolution that would concentrate on five or six ways to flesh out existing sanctions against North Korea that had never been enforced, diplomats said. Although China supports the idea of sanctions, it wants to work slowly and to bolster measures first passed in 2006 rather than creating new ones, they said.

The proposals include banning imports and exports of all arms — only heavy weapons are restricted now. “We want to dry out their resources for the military,” said a senior Western diplomat, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the negotiations.

North Korea has said that it will consider sanctions a declaration of war.

“If North Korea stages a provocation, we will respond resolutely,” the South Korean military said in a statement, reacting to the North’s threats. Citing a “strong” military alliance with the United States, it said, “We advise our people to trust our military’s solid readiness and feel safe.”

Since inter-Korean relations began deteriorating a year ago, analysts at government-run and private policy institutes in South Korea have often warned of a possible naval skirmish. The analysts said North Korea might engage in a limited armed provocation along the border, especially along the disputed western sea border.

South Korea’s president, Lee Myung-bak, lauded his people on Wednesday for their “mature response” to the North’s behavior. He noted that the North’s nuclear test and its six subsequent short-range missile launchings did not affect stock and foreign exchange markets beyond initial jitters.

Reporting was contributed by Mark McDonald from Hong Kong, Hiroko Tabuchi from Tokyo, Thom Shanker from Washington, and Neil MacFarquhar from the United Nations.

New York Times
June 1, 2009

"It is not even clear that China has the influence to sway the North Korean government, he added."
"They also say that they are not trying to provoke the North, which has seemed particularly volatile since its leader, Kim Jong-il, appears to have had a stroke in August."

I was reading some more on the situation this morning and had another thought. If a war broke out with North Korea, would China, there only ally, step up and defend them? If we back S.Korea and China backed N. Korea, would we be at war with China too?

The second quoted text seems to go along with what I said earlier about Kim going out with a bang. Who knows.

I just heard recently on Real Time with Bill Maher that China provides 90% of its energy resources.  John Bolton was on there so I'm sure he would have jumped all over that stat if incorrect.  Maher was saying China enjoyed significant leverage.  But of course that assumes some type of rational thought and North Koreans are not known for rational thought by a long shot.